Friday 1 May, ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)
An early read on US industrial activity and pricing pressures. Given recent weakness in manufacturing and elevated input costs (energy), this print will help determine whether growth is stabilising or rolling over further. Why it matters: A weak print reinforces the slowdown narrative (bullish for risk via lower yields), while a rebound, particularly in prices paid, supports higher-for-longer and keeps yields elevated.
Friday 8 May, US Non-Farm Payrolls (April)
Labour market conditions remain central to policy expectations, particularly job growth and wage dynamics. Strong data reinforces restrictive policy, while labour softening accelerates easing expectations.
Tuesday 12 May, US CPI Inflation (April)
The most important inflation release, particularly the core and services components, given recent persistence in price pressures. A hot CPI delays easing expectations, while cooling data supports disinflation.
Thursday 14 May, US PPI Inflation (April)
Producer-level inflation, closely tied to input costs (notably energy). This has recently been a key driver of hawkish repricing. Why it matters: An elevated PPI confirms pipeline inflation pressure, reinforcing higher-for-longer. A cooling PPI suggests easing upstream pressures and supports the disinflation narrative.
Friday 15 May, US Retail Sales (April)
A key read on consumer strength and demand resilience. Consumption remains the backbone of US economic growth. Why it matters: Strong spending points to growth resilience but also inflation risk. Weak spending signals a growth slowdown, which is bullish for bonds and risk assets.
Friday 22 May, Initial Jobless Claims Trend (Weekly Focus)
While weekly, claims trends become critical in a turning labour market. Sustained increases are often the earliest signal of labour deterioration. Why it matters: A rising claims trend signals a softening labour market and an easing bias. Stable or low claims reinforce Fed patience.
Thursday 28 May, Core PCE Inflation (April)
The Fed’s preferred inflation measure and the most important data point post-FOMC. A sticky PCE reinforces a restrictive policy environment, while cooling data opens the door for easing.
Ongoing (May), Oil and Geopolitical Developments
Movements in Brent crude oil remain critical, with geopolitical risk (Middle East, supply constraints) driving volatility. Why it matters: Oil strength signals inflation persistence, pushing yields higher and constraining cryptocurrency. Oil decline brings macro relief, improving conditions for ETF demand and bitcoin upside.
On-Chain Metrics
The Short-Term Holder Realised Price (STHRP), currently at $83,600, is the most important metric to watch. The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) is hovering close to the 1.0 mark, meaning short-term holders are exiting spot positions close to their cost basis.
Bottom Line for May
May is a data-heavy, macro-decision month, with inflation and labour prints driving expectations more than policy itself. The key framework remains: inflation and oil equal policy constraint; labour weakness equals policy relief; policy relief equals ETF flows returning, equals cryptocurrency upside.
