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It looks like expecting a 2025-style Q2 rally isn’t too far-fetched after all.
Back then, after double-digit losses in Q1, the next quarter bounced hard, bringing most underwater holders back into profit.
Notably, while Bitcoin [BTC] fell roughly 12%, Ethereum [ETH] suffered even deeper losses, roughly 4x BTC’s drop.
However, Q2 triggered a massive ETH rally, putting around 80% of the underwater holders into unrealized gains, with a 37% ROI, and even outperformed BTC by 1.2x. Fast forward to now, a similar setup seems to be forming, which is why these ETH/BTC bullish weekly runs aren’t a one-off.
So far in Q1, Ethereum’s ROI has been nearly 1.5x lower than Bitcoin’s -19% losses. Basically, ETH is echoing the Q1 setup from the 2025 cycle. The big question now: Will Ethereum pull off a Q2-style rebound again?
On the charts, the ETH/BTC ratio has reclaimed the 0.3 level after losing it back in late January. At the same time, Bitcoin dominance [BTC.D] is capping at 60%, while Ethereum dominance [ETH.D] is shooting up toward 11%, a setup that’s technically bullish.
No doubt, BitMine’s [BMNR] ETH conviction has stayed strong through the bearish cycle. That said, if this lines up with bullish on-chain metrics and rising whale accumulation, could it be that we’re finally seeing the end of Ethereum’s “mini winter”?
Ethereum eyes the end of crypto’s mini winter
BitMine’s Ethereum conviction has stayed rock-solid despite recent macro FUD.
In fact, reports say BitMine added another 65,341 ETH, as Tom Lee noted that “Ethereum is in the final stages of its mini-crypto winter.” Analysts called this a strategic, long-term move.
In other words, a “generational position,” not a one-off, and something most of the market hasn’t entirely understood.
However, this appears to be starting to change. On-chain data from Santiment shows that wallets holding between 100 and 100,000 ETH accumulated 756.95k ETH over the past two days.
At the same time, Ethereum Futures takers continue to push the price higher, with Net Taker Volume (30DMA) reaching +$133 million, the highest level since July 2022.
In this context, Tom Lee’s “mini winter” call actually starts to make sense.
When you put it all together, whale accumulation, staked ETH at all-time highs, and rising futures net volume, the market is showing multiple signs that a bottom could be forming.
Even more striking, Ethereum ETFs have seen over $250 million in outflows in the past four days, yet ETH continues to chop around $2k, making this bottom even more pronounced.
Against this backdrop, the ETH/BTC vertical expansion doesn’t look random. Instead, backed by strong on-chain metrics and growing whale accumulation, it seems a solid supply shock is forming underneath, setting the stage for a potential Q2 2025-style repeat rally for Ethereum.
Final Summary
- Whale accumulation, staked ETH at all-time highs, and rising futures volume suggest a potential Ethereum bottom around $2k.
- Tom Lee’s mini-winter call adds weight, making a Q2 2025-style 37% rally likely.
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