Key takeaways:
Bitcoin bulls purpose to push BTC above $110,000 by Might 30 to capitalize on $4.8 billion in name choices.
Spot BTC ETF inflows and weak put positioning give bulls a robust edge within the month-to-month expiry.
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching its largest month-to-month options expiry of 2025, with whole publicity reaching $13.8 billion. This occasion offers bulls an opportunity to safe Bitcoin’s worth above $110,000, as bears have been caught off guard by a 25% rally over the previous 30 days.
The open curiosity in Bitcoin put (promote) choices stands at $6.5 billion, however 95% of those positions are set under $109,000. Due to this fact, if Bitcoin’s worth holds close to present ranges, lower than $350 million value of put choices will stay related at expiry.
Conversely, the open curiosity in Bitcoin name (purchase) choices as much as $109,000 totals $3.8 billion. Nonetheless, this imbalance doesn’t imply each name choice holder was betting on Bitcoin’s rise. Some merchants might have offered these choices as a option to hedge their exposure above sure worth ranges.
Among the many most vital choice methods traded at Deribit previously two weeks is the “quick name,” which is usually utilized by traders searching for a fixed-income return so long as Bitcoin’s worth stays above a selected threshold. Equally, the “bull name unfold” technique hedges in opposition to draw back danger by sacrificing good points above a sure worth.
Robust Bitcoin ETF inflows scale back the chances of additional worth decline
If Bitcoin maintains the $109,000 degree, most bullish methods ought to ship constructive ends in the Might choices expiry. Nevertheless, bears might attempt to affect BTC futures markets to restrict their losses because the expiry date approaches.
The full open curiosity in Bitcoin futures is at present $79 billion, displaying robust demand for short (sell) positions. Nonetheless, this technique might backfire if Bitcoin rises above $110,000, as bears is likely to be pressured to shut their positions.
Net inflows of $1.9 billion into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) between Might 20 and Might 22 point out that demand above $105,000 stays sturdy. Finally, bears’ predominant hope lies in a weaker macroeconomic atmosphere, which might enhance danger aversion and scale back demand for Bitcoin.
Associated: Bitcoin hits new highs in the absence of ‘unhealthy’ leverage use — Will the rally continue?
Bitcoin bulls purpose for $110,000 by Might 30
Beneath are 4 seemingly situations based mostly on present worth developments. These outcomes estimate theoretical income based mostly on open curiosity imbalances and don’t account for complicated methods.
Between $102k and $105k: $2.75 billion in calls (purchase) vs. $900 million in places (promote). The online outcome favors the decision devices by $1.85 billion.
Between $105k and $107k: $3.3 billion calls vs. $650 million places, favoring calls by $2.65 billion.
Between $107k and $110k: $3.7 billion calls vs. $350 million places, favoring calls by $3.35 billion.
Between $110k and $114k: $4.8 billion calls vs. $120 million places, favoring calls by $4.7 billion.
Bulls can maximize their good points by driving BTC above $110,000, which might assist set a brand new all-time excessive. Nevertheless, the continued bullish momentum depends upon developments within the ongoing tariff struggle, which has been a key focus in current weeks.
This text is for basic info functions and isn’t meant to be and shouldn’t be taken as authorized or funding recommendation. The views, ideas, and opinions expressed listed here are the writer’s alone and don’t essentially replicate or signify the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
