If bitcoin is the future, what explains MicroStrategy’s need for speed?

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One thing peculiar is afoot at MicroStrategy. 

The corporate has amassed over two per cent of all bitcoin in existence, funded via a mix of shares and convertible bonds. This technique has turned a humdrum enterprise software program agency into one thing akin to a bitcoin ETF, albeit one buying and selling at a frothy premium to its web asset worth. The inventory is up over 20 instances for the reason that pivot to bitcoin in August 2020.

But latest months have revealed some curious contradictions on this narrative. Whereas bitcoin has maintained its stratospheric altitude at round $100,000 per coin, MicroStrategy’s inventory has drifted decrease, shedding 40 per cent since peaking intraday on November 21 at $550, which implied on the time a market cap of $124bn. Even its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index failed to spice up the share worth. Its premium to web asset worth has in the meantime decreased from a excessive of three.8 instances to 1.9 instances. This decline within the share worth is going on whilst the corporate continues to amass extra bitcoin.

Extra telling nonetheless is the corporate’s frenetic execution of its $21bn “at-the-money” fairness providing, introduced with a lot fanfare on Hallowe’en. What was billed as a three-year marathon has been run on the tempo of a sprinter on amphetamines, with over two-thirds of the allocation exhausted in just two months. That is odd behaviour for a technique ostensibly designed for disciplined, incremental shopping for. There was no buying on the dip. At the same time as bitcoin’s worth has held agency close to its peak, Michael Saylor, the corporate’s chair, has ramped up bitcoin purchases at breakneck pace.

In accordance with JPMorgan analysts, MicroStrategy accounted for an astonishing 28 per cent of capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market in 2024.

There’s additionally no time to waste. Final Friday the corporate announced plans to lift as much as $2bn in perpetual most well-liked inventory this quarter to purchase extra bitcoin, though the exact timing and phrases haven’t but been introduced. This comes simply over per week after MicroStrategy mentioned it was in search of shareholder approval to increase its share rely by over 3000 per cent from 330mn to 10.33bn. 

The timing smacks of opportunism, as if the corporate’s management recognises that the present NAV premium — the monetary equal of finding money growing on trees — may not be everlasting. There’s a touch of urgency (or desperation) within the air, an excessive haste to lock on this discrepancy between MicroStrategy’s inventory and the bitcoin worth earlier than it’s arbitraged away.

Compounding the intrigue is the behaviour of MicroStrategy’s senior management. Saylor has publicly condemned diversification, urging traders to pay attention their portfolios in bitcoin with virtually non secular conviction. He has even urged that folks mortgage their homes to buy bitcoin! 

His lieutenants, nevertheless, appeared to have missed the sermon, cashing in huge chunks of their stock holdings for the very fiat foreign money their boss routinely derides. November saw a flurry of insider selling, as executives transformed their shares into good old style Yankee {dollars}. MicroStrategy shares could also be a bitcoin proxy and so ostensibly a unique store of value, however with insider gross sales totalling $570mn in 2024, administration shouldn’t be HODLing the inventory.

The paradoxes don’t cease there. In following its technique MicroStrategy seems structurally predisposed to purchasing bitcoin at ever-higher costs. Through the crypto winter of 2022-2023, when bitcoin wallowed within the teenagers and twenties, the corporate’s purchases slowed to a crawl as its inventory traded round NAV. But as bitcoin’s worth soared, so too did MicroStrategy’s shopping for frenzy. The enterprise mannequin appears much less a guess on bitcoin’s inherent worth and extra a wager on the zeal it evokes. 

The premium to NAV holds so long as bitcoin retains ascending, and that premium is the glue that holds the complete technique collectively. By promoting inventory at 2-3 instances NAV, MicroStrategy is in impact shopping for bitcoin at a considerable low cost. With out the NAV premium, the inventory worth falls, and far of the $7.2bn of convertible bonds excellent risks being redeemed for cash at maturity, not transformed into new shares. At that time, issues get loads stickier for MicroStrategy as a result of its software program enterprise loses money and it generates no money from bitcoin. (MicroStrategy trumpets a metric known as “BTC yield”, which means a return however actually measures the percentage increase in bitcoin per share from its concern of inventory and purchases of bitcoin. There’s actually no “yield” within the conventional sense of dividends or revenue streams.)

Perpetual appreciation is a demanding ask for any asset class, and the corporate appears to understand it. Saylor’s relentless proselytising for bitcoin — an odd alternative for somebody accumulating the asset — suggests an acute consciousness of the stakes. It’s additionally no shock that he’s cultivating authorities assist, meeting with President-elect Donald Trump’s son Eric (which preceded a pointy 13 per cent rise within the inventory on Friday) and advocating for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. It’s an ironic twist for a cryptocurrency lengthy touted as a bulwark towards authorities meddling. However when your playbook hinges on unrelenting enthusiasm, pragmatism trumps precept.

The query that lingers is whether or not MicroStrategy can keep its premium valuation via sheer power of narrative very like the meme shares which have defied typical valuation metrics. The corporate has successfully turn into a publicly traded guess on bitcoin’s future, however one that also trades at a considerable mark-up to the underlying asset. This premium represents both the market’s religion in Saylor’s imaginative and prescient or a short lived, psychology-driven inefficiency ready to be arbitraged away.

The entire affair looks like a high-stakes recreation of musical chairs, and because the tempo quickens, even the insiders appear to be hedging their bets. Whether or not MicroStrategy’s gambit can be remembered as a stroke of monetary genius or a cautionary story stays unresolved. For now, the music performs on, with the volume dialled up to 11, and the trustworthy — or the merely hopeful — keep dancing.

Additional studying:
— MicroStrategy’s secret sauce is volatility, not bitcoin (FTAV)
— Examining MicroStrategy’s record-shattering $21bn ATM (FTAV)