Dogecoin’s subsequent inflection might arrive as quickly as October 22–23, in line with crypto analyst VisionPulsed, who argues that the memecoin’s multi-month rising channel will both affirm with the next low within the $0.16–$0.18 area or give solution to one other full “spherical journey” into year-end.
In an October 16 video evaluation, he frames the approaching week as a binary checkpoint: “This subsequent week goes to be your do or die… if this breaks down, it’s over. GG. If it holds, then let’s imagine, ‘All proper, rally is coming and perhaps we’ll get one other probability.’”
Why October 23 May Be Essential For Dogecoin
The case rests on a recurring confluence he has been monitoring for months: Dogecoin tagging a channel assist trendline whereas the day by day RSI presses into oversold, adopted by enchancment in his macro learn on M2 turning bullish into month-end.
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“Each time we come to the pattern line the RSI hits oversold,” he mentioned, pointing to prior exams in March–April and June. “We simply hit the pattern line once more in October… and the M2 turns bullish on the finish of October.” He stops in need of calling a “bull run,” describing the following upside try as a “bullish push” contingent on holding that assist into October 23.
VisionPulsed locations an uncommon emphasis on timing. He sees affirmation if Dogecoin establishes the next low earlier than October 22–23, with the exact worth print much less necessary than preserving the construction. “If it finally ends up being the next low, which might technically be both 18 cents or 16 cents… it doesn’t matter. We’d be holding the pattern line,” he mentioned. A failure to take action would, in his view, push any sturdy reversal past the horizon: “If we find yourself crashing into November anyway, then we’re not going up. It’s that easy. There’s no extra time left.”
Seasonality and sentiment are essential to his analysis. October, he insists, has been a persistent headwind for Dogecoin and broader danger, whereas November typically marks the inflection. “October shouldn’t be actually that bullish… the S&P 500 is bearish in October,” he famous. “November is definitely traditionally when the market does flip bullish.”
The week-to-week whipsaw by means of mid-year underscores the purpose, he argues: “In June, it was over after which by July we’re again. Then in August, it was over. After which in September we have been again. In October it’s over. And November we’re most likely again.”
Nonetheless, the evaluation is framed in opposition to a candid acknowledgement of Dogecoin’s stalled cycle. “We’ve been making Dogecoin movies for nearly two… it’s been two years now and the value has achieved nothing,” he mentioned. “Three years in the past Dogecoin was 16 cents and now it’s 18 cents… the value of Dogecoin has not moved in nearly three years.”
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The stagnation is why he views this fourth 12 months of the four-year cycle as make-or-break. If the channel fails or, conversely, if the market rallies however can not escape by December, he expects one other “spherical journey”: “If we make it to December and we nonetheless didn’t get out of the channel, then it’s going to be bearish once more and we’re going to spherical journey once more.”
Tactically, he anticipates another check of assist into the weekend earlier than any reversal try. “We’re most likely going to again check it this weekend. We’re most likely going to see one other sell-off,” he mentioned. “If we are able to kind the next low, then that may affirm that the underside is in and we might see a reversal increased.”
He pins the important thing checkpoint to October 23 with uncommon readability—“X marks the spot”—and maintains that till then “we’re bearish.” The upside roadmap, if assist holds, could be a grind again to the highest of the channel by late November, per prior month-to-month recoveries: “I wouldn’t be stunned if by the top of November, we’re again on the high of the channel.”
He concluded: “It doesn’t actually take that lengthy for Dogecoin to actually get well,” stressing the coin’s capability for sharp mean-reversions as soon as construction is revered. “However we now have to carry the underside of the channel first earlier than we are able to begin speaking a couple of reversal level.”
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.183.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com