Crypto analyst VisionPulsed says Dogecoin’s window for a cycle-defining advance has narrowed to weeks, arguing {that a} failure to pivot greater in November would possible finish the present bull-side setup and shift the dialog to draw back threat in 2026.
In a late-November 5 video, the analyst framed Bitcoin’s weekly transferring common because the near-term arbiter of development and, by extension, Dogecoin’s destiny: “By the top of the week, we have to see Bitcoin again over $103,000–$104,000. If that finally ends up occurring, then you can begin pushing the thought… we may begin speaking a few Dogecoin rally. If we shut under $102k, 100k even, that’s your first affirmation that it’s truly a bear market.
Dogecoin Wants Speedy Reversal
VisionPulsed anchored the Dogecoin outlook to a broader learn on market construction and cross-asset momentum. He famous that when mapping the “top-10 dominance” basket ex-stablecoins, the market has “totally retraced the alt season from 2021.” Hitting the higher band of that multi-year channel “doesn’t imply it’s the highest,” he cautioned, nevertheless it reinforces how mature the advance has grow to be. The analyst emphasised that he’s not declaring the start of altseason primarily based on this single indicator; slightly, he’s situating Dogecoin threat in a market that has already re-tested a essential historic boundary.
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The instant gating issue, he mentioned, stays Bitcoin’s weekly transferring common and a cluster of corroborating alerts. “All eyes are nonetheless on $103,000,” VisionPulsed mentioned, pointing to a supertrend learn that, up to now, mirrors a March episode when worth briefly broke under however by no means closed underneath it, avoiding a proper promote set off. He contrasted that with 2021, when confirmed closes under the identical device delivered unambiguous promote alerts.
The excellence issues as a result of Dogecoin’s high-beta conduct to Bitcoin tends to compress timelines for each rallies and retracements, and any decisive break and shut beneath the transferring common would erase the already tight window for a Dogecoin impulse.
Momentum, within the analyst’s framing, is “so bearish that it’s screaming the top of the market cycle is close to,” although the month-to-month MACD has not crossed down but. That lag on higher-timeframe oscillators leaves room for a “little or no rally,” which in earlier cycles nonetheless permitted outsized alt strikes.
“On this bull market… each time we’ve bounced off the transferring common, we’ve damaged the prior excessive,” he mentioned, making the conditional case that if the development holds and Bitcoin reclaims the extent into the weekly shut, a closing Dogecoin push stays doable. However he refused to increase the timeline past the close to time period: “I might argue that if we don’t truly return up in November, it’s most likely not occurring.”
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The calendar overlay is doing heavy lifting. VisionPulsed explored a situation by which Dogecoin may peak in January, however burdened the maths now strains credibility until upside begins instantly. “Eighty-one days from now can be January… it’s beginning to get to the purpose the place it’s virtually unachievable since you don’t wish to hold stretching this out to January, February, March. In some unspecified time in the future, it’s a must to say it’s not occurring.” The refusal to “transfer the goalposts” defines his base case: the bull thesis survives provided that November prints a directional turn.
From a sample perspective, he flagged a head-and-shoulders-like construction on Dogecoin and launched a vivid draw back marker he has utilized in prior updates. “That’s why this little pig is down right here,” he mentioned, referring to a graphic that labels a possible capitulation zone round $0.05 to $0.06.
If Bitcoin loses the weekly transferring common and confirms the breakdown with a detailed, “the pig solely is in play as soon as Bitcoin is under that transferring common,” and Dogecoin’s main goal would revert to “5 to 6 cents.” On the Bitcoin aspect, he framed a bear-market base case of 40,000–50,000 on the belief that each upside and draw back retracements are shrinking versus prior cycles, implying “not 77%… you’d most likely get 65% to 70%,” which might align with a mid-40k trough.
For Dogecoin particularly, he drew a clear resolution tree. If Bitcoin reclaims $103,000–$104,000 into the weekly shut and confirms above the transferring common, the Dogecoin rally window reopens, with a shot at a late-This fall to January run. If Bitcoin closes under roughly $102,000 and sustains weak point, “it’s bear market time,” Dogecoin possible gravitates to the “pig at 5 cents,” and “it would even break the pig truthfully” relying on the severity of Bitcoin’s drawdown.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.16297.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com