Key Takeaways
BTC may escape above $110K and eye $150K earlier than the top of the 12 months. August may spark volatility, however cycle peak indicators steered the market is much from being overheated.
Bitcoin [BTC] nonetheless has extra gasoline to run on, and a breakout to a brand new document excessive may very well be probably, in keeping with analyst Willy Woo.
He noted that an more and more favorable liquidity set-up and low macro threat may gasoline BTC progress, much like the uptrend seen in 2017, 2021, and early 2024.
“It fashions BTC’s liquidity, we’re late cycle. Dips in threat are areas of latest discovered liquidity, typically a prelude to interrupt new highs. It’s dipping proper now!”
Supply: Willy Woo/X
The above indicator tracks macro threat linked to on-chain liquidity. The decrease the readings, the extra probably the expansion is, as seen in 2017 and 2021.
At the moment, the studying has been elevated whereas BTC has been caught in $100K-$110K vary. However a sustained decline in threat may very well be constructive for the asset.
BTC is much from topping out
The above bullish outlook was additionally supported by low readings on key cycle high metrics.
In line with a composite tracker of the highest 30 cycle peak alerts, together with Pi Cycle and MVRV Z-Rating, none had been flagged as of this writing.
This meant BTC nonetheless had a agency ‘maintain’ score and no have to promote, implying potential future progress.
Supply: CoinGlass
On the demand aspect, long-term holders (LTH, customers who’ve held on to BTC for greater than 155 days) nonetheless had robust convictions within the asset.
Between April and July, this investor cohort elevated its BTC holdings by over 1 million BTC. Now they maintain 15.4 million BTC from 14.25 million BTC in April.
Moreover, the 30-day web LTH holding change has remained constructive regardless of a slight decline. This conviction and accumulation coincided with a 46% restoration for BTC from April lows.
Supply: CryptoQuant
Earlier within the 12 months, LTH web change flipped adverse and coincided with the native peak and subsequent 30% pullback from $109K to $75K.
Nonetheless, the present constructive LTH bid steered a bullish conviction, and constructive for the BTC worth outlook.
In truth, Charles Edwards, founding father of crypto VC Capriole Investments, speculated that BTC may hit $150K by September, citing rising international liquidity.
An identical worth goal, however utilizing technical evaluation, was shared by analyst Crypto Jelle.
“Excessive-timeframe bullish pennant breakout. Goal: $150,000. Hold it easy.”
Supply: Crypto Jelle/X
However crypto buying and selling desk QCP Capital cautioned that regardless of the summer time lull, new tariffs and the debt ceiling deadline in August may spark volatility.
“However beware the quiet. Volatility could also be on summer time break, however Q3 and This autumn may nonetheless ship fireworks.”
