Key Takeaways
Bitcoin faces a crucial check in September amid delicate CPI, tariff inflows, and rising rate-cut bets.
“Month-over-month inflation : As anticipated.” It’s in all probability essentially the most bullish macro headline we’ve had shortly.
What’s extra, it slots in completely with Bitcoin’s [BTC] tight vary just below all-time excessive provide.
For context, we’re T-minus 35 days to FOMC, and July CPI not solely matched June’s print, but in addition front-ran the two.8% avenue name. That’s recent ammo for the September-cut narrative.
Now, the query is whether or not this favorable macro backdrop gentle the fuse that lastly rips Bitcoin out of consolidation and into value discovery.
BTC’s course hangs on September
September’s historically been a toss-up for Bitcoin. Solely 4 of the previous 12 Septembers closed inexperienced, with crimson dominating the returns. That observe report provides further weight to this month’s setup.
However this 12 months, it’s greater than simply historical past. September units the stage for This autumn. Notably, it’s the greatest bullish window for risk-on belongings, due to “anticipated” QE flooding the market with recent liquidity.
That’s the place July’s softer-than-feared CPI steps in. Put merely, inflation stayed tame, giving the market extra ammo for rate-cut bets. The consequence? Market now costs 94.4% odds of a 25 bps minimize on the September FOMC.
Supply: FedWatch
Actually, that’s a pointy transfer from 85% pre-CPI and effectively above 57.4% a month in the past. Market positioning is clearly elevated, reflecting front-loaded rate-cut bets into the September FOMC.
In the meantime, market sentiment is additional supported by Donald Trump’s comments that tariffs haven’t pushed inflation. This, coupled with a 273% surge in July tariff inflows to $25 billion, reinforces dovish market bias.
All in all, delicate CPI plus report tariff money is fueling a risk-on setup for September. If the Fed follows via, may Bitcoin catch a liquidity tailwind heading into This autumn?
Bitcoin within the closing quarter
On common, Bitcoin posts 85.42% returns in Q4, cementing it as essentially the most bullish quarter versus Q1-Q3 mixed.
Technically, if Bitcoin holds vary assist throughout the $120k-$125k liquidity shelf in Q3, it units up a positive structural base for a high-probability This autumn breakout.
From a modeling perspective, utilizing a extra ‘conservative’ This autumn projection of 30-40% upside from the present Bitcoin degree of $120k, the implied year-end goal zone sits at $156k-$168k.
Supply: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Finally, a lot now hinges on how September unfolds.
The market’s in a “wait-and-see” stance, however with the delicate CPI print, liquidity is leaning bull-side, making Bitcoin’s present chop a possible candy spot for outsized This autumn features.
