Key Takeaways
The volatility of the BTC/Gold ratio has dropped to a document low of two, an ‘undervalued’ stage that might push BTC to $126K, per JP Morgan analysts.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] value swings or volatility have cooled off considerably, from over 60% to document lows of 30% in 2025.
In August, Bitcoin’s value dropped by 11%, falling from above $124,000. Regardless of this decline, it has but to point out sturdy assist or a decisive rebound on the $110,000 stage.
In keeping with JP Morgan analysts, led by the Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, this was ‘too low’ and deemed the present BTC value as ‘undervalued’ towards gold.
Supply: Deribit
Bitcoin to swing again to $126K?
In keeping with the analysts, a powerful accumulation of over 6% by company treasuries performed an enormous function in suppressing volatility.
In comparison with gold, the volatility of the Bitcoin/Gold ratio has additionally dropped to a document low of two. This meant that BTC consumed twice as a lot danger capital as gold in consumer portfolios, the analysts added.
Supply: JP Morgan
Analysts famous that Bitcoin’s decrease volatility offered a powerful shopping for alternative.
This was additional supported by excessive inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and crypto treasuries. Collectively, these components signaled favorable market situations for accumulating BTC.
“Decrease volatility makes it simpler for establishments to allocate capital, with bitcoin and gold now nearer than ever in risk-adjusted phrases.”
JP Morgan estimates that Bitcoin must rise by 13% to match gold’s $5 trillion personal allocation.
At press time, Bitcoin’s market cap stood at $2.2 trillion, a 13% improve would push BTC’s honest worth to round $126,000.
Analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou suggests this goal may very well be reached by the tip of the yr.
On-chain information exhibits that Bitcoin stays undervalued and is approaching an area backside, offered present 2025 tendencies proceed.
The True MVRV valuation metric helps this view, displaying that earlier native bottoms in Could and June occurred when the indicator hit 1.6.
The indicator dropped to the identical stage on the time of writing, suggesting a backside may very well be reached if upcoming inflation information favors danger belongings.
Supply: CryptoQuant
Therefore, if July inflation (PCE) data is available in cooler than anticipated, it might enhance September price reduce expectations and BTC value restoration.
Quite the opposite, a warmer or greater inflation print might set off a bearish sentiment within the brief time period.
